“当前经济运行稳中有变、变中有忧，外部环境复杂严峻，经济面临下行压力，用电量增长不确定性增大。”中国电力企业联合会专职副理事长兼秘书长于崇德1月29日在接受中国经济时报记者采访时表示，综合考虑国际国内形势、产业运行和地方发展等以及2018年高基数影响，预计2019年全社会用电量增速将平稳回落。
于崇德预计，在平水年、没有大范围极端气温影响的情况下，预计全年全社会用电量增长5.5%左右。
于崇德认为，2019年全国电力供需总体平衡，局部地区部分时段电力供需偏紧。新能源发电装机将持续增加;第三产业和居民生活用电比重持续提高，拉大系统峰谷差，时段性系统调峰能力不足;电煤价格高位运行，发电用煤维持地区性季节性供需偏紧格局。
“在多重因素叠加、交互影响下，预计全年全国电力供需总体平衡，局部地区高峰时段电力供需偏紧。”于崇德分析表示，华北、华中区域局部性时段性电力供需偏紧;华东区域电力供需总体平衡;南方区域电力供需总体平衡，枯水期广西、贵州偏紧，汛期云南清洁能源消纳压力较大;东北、西北区域预计电力供应能力富余。
结合电力供需分析与预测，于崇德提出如下建议。
坚持落实发展战略规划，深入推进电力生产和消费革命。重点做好规划引领、电网架构、新能源发展、核电建设等工作。根据“十三五”规划中期评估结果，及时调整电力发展节奏和规划目标，并抓好落实;尽快启动“十四五”规划研究工作。深化中长期电网网架规划研究，尽快形成目标清晰、布局科学、结构合理、运行高效、便于实施的中长期网架规划。
坚持深化供给侧结构性改革，提高清洁高效电力供给能力。重点加大清洁能源消纳、电网调节和供给保障能力等工作。全力以赴、多措并举实现清洁能源消纳目标。挖掘潜力，着力提升电网调节能力，促进供需平衡。完善调峰辅助服务补偿机制，提高机组改造积极性，全面推动煤电灵活性改造和运行。提高电网保障电力供应和资源优化配置能力。加快特高压配套电源核准建设，提高现有特高压通道的利用率;着力解决城乡区域电网发展不平衡问题，继续推进配电网、中西部地区农村电网的建设，提升电网供给保障能力。
坚持推进电力市场化改革，提高电力消费服务水平。深入推进电力体制改革，重点抓好增量配电网改革试点、电价传导机制、电价政策落实、电能替代等。着力推动增量配电业务改革试点项目落地。推动建立市场化的电价传导机制。全面落实供电营业区内转供电主体的电价政策。进一步加大电能替代力度，不断提高电力占终端能源消费比重，全力推进再电气化进程。
坚持防范市场风险，化解电力企业经营困境。中电联行业发展与环境资源部副主任薛静对本报记者表示，当前，全国煤电企业亏损面约为53%，电网企业2018年利润下降24.3%，应重点保障电煤供应、落实可再生能源补贴资金等。她强调，保障电煤价格在合理区间，加强煤电运三方中长期合同有效监管，确保合同履约到位;进一步规范煤电定价机制，以电煤价格指数为依据，引导市场合理预期，控制电煤价格在合理区间，缓解煤电企业经营困境。落实可再生能源补贴资金，加快可再生能源补贴目录公布和补贴资金发放，尽快解决巨额拖欠问题，缓解企业经营和资金压力。
原标题:全社会用电量增速 今年将平稳回落
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